Shot Group Size 3, 5, 10? Does it even matter?

Published on September 13, 2025
Duration: 12:27

This video explores the concept of statistical relevance in firearm accuracy testing, specifically focusing on shot group sizes. The presenter tests a Seekins DMR in 6mm ARC with Hornady match-grade ammunition, firing 70 rounds to assess group consistency and velocity data. While aiming for 100 rounds, a storm and limited ammunition curtailed the experiment. The findings suggest that while larger sample sizes offer more data, smaller groups can still be indicative of a rifle's potential accuracy, especially when external factors like mirage and wind are present.

Quick Summary

The debate on statistical relevance in firearm accuracy testing questions the need for large shot counts. While 100 rounds offer high statistical certainty, this video suggests that smaller groups (1.1-1.8 inches) can still reveal a rifle's potential, especially when accounting for environmental factors like mirage and wind.

Chapters

  1. 00:01Introduction: Statistical Relevance Debate
  2. 00:19Ammunition Cost and Testing Volume
  3. 00:42Setup: Seekins DMR, 6mm ARC, Hornady Ammo
  4. 01:49GoPro and Garmin Data Recording
  5. 02:03Weather Challenges: Storm Cell Approaching
  6. 02:18Scope Zeroing Issues
  7. 03:18Mirage and Environmental Conditions
  8. 03:36First 10-Shot Group
  9. 05:05First 10 Rounds Complete: Cooling and Next Steps
  10. 05:4920 Shots Downrange: Group Analysis
  11. 06:00Analyzing Group Size vs. Ammo SD
  12. 06:4030 Rounds Down: Mirage and Cooling
  13. 07:1340 Shots Done: Ammunition Constraints
  14. 07:47Barrel Heat and Cooling
  15. 08:01Malfunction and Continued Testing
  16. 08:16Garmin Data for Last 20 Shots
  17. 08:51Last 10 Shots: 70 Rounds Total
  18. 09:23Final Rounds and Sizzling Sound
  19. 09:35Garmin Data Analysis: Velocity and SD
  20. 10:42Post-Range Analysis: Group Sizes on Paper
  21. 10:56Rifle's Potential Accuracy vs. Test Conditions
  22. 11:09Wind Impact on Target Movement
  23. 11:19Overall Average Group Size
  24. 11:29The Question of Statistical Relevance
  25. 11:54Conclusion: Personal Approach to Testing
  26. 12:07Closing Remarks

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the recommended number of shots for testing firearm group size?

While some argue for 10-shot groups or even 100 rounds for true statistical relevance, this video suggests that smaller groups (1.1-1.8 inches) can still indicate a rifle's inherent accuracy, especially when considering ammunition cost and environmental factors.

How do environmental factors affect firearm accuracy testing?

Heavy mirage from heat and wind causing target movement can significantly impact shot placement and group sizes. The presenter noted these factors potentially inflated group sizes during their test.

What is the average group size achieved in the Seekins DMR 6mm ARC test?

Across 70 rounds fired, the overall average group size for the Seekins DMR in 6mm ARC was 1.4 inches. Individual groups ranged from 1.1 inches to approximately 1.8 inches.

What muzzle velocity and standard deviation were recorded for the 6mm ARC ammunition?

The first 10 shots averaged 2719 ft/s with a standard deviation of 4.7 ft/s. The last 19 shots averaged 2715 ft/s with a standard deviation of 12 ft/s, indicating a slight increase in velocity variation.

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